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Six degrees:Our Future On A Hotter Planet by Mark Lynas
National Geographic Books
National Geographic Society (1145 17th St. NW,Washington, DC 20036), 2008.335 pages, hardcover. $26.00.
“Agriculture accounts for about 13% of global greenhouse
gas emissions,approximately the same amount as transport,”
Gabrielle Walker and Sir David King acknowledge on
page 105 of The Hot Topic, in their first and only more than
fleeting mention of the contribution of animal husbandry to
global warming.
“Almost none of this comes from carbon dioxide,”
Walker and King explain. “Though huge amounts of carbon
dioxide do pass between the atmosphere and agricultural crops
every year, the balance is more or less zero. It’s the sister
greenhouse gases––methane and nitrous oxide––that matter
most here. Agricultural methane comes from a variety of
places,” Walker and King continue, “and almost lways
involves microbes feasting on organic matter in places where
there is little or no oxygen. Thus the biggest sources are the
guts of cows, sheep, and water buffalo.”
Reducing the numbers of cows, sheep, and water
buffalo raised for human consumption would therefore appear
to be as helpful in combating global warming as reducing the
numbers of cars, or improving vehicular gas mileage. But
Walker and King never so much as mention that possibility.
“There are various ways to control agricultural emissions,”
Walker and King suggest, “almost all of which involve
increasing the efficiency of how we use our land. For instance,
better diets for livestock makes them––to put it frankly––belch
less. In New Zealand, scientists are studying how to change
the microbates that cows use to digest their food to encourage
them to make sugars instead of methane…Agricultural lands
could even be encouraged to become net sinks of carbon,” propose
Walker and King, “by reducing the amount of plowing,
which disturbs the soil and encourages microbes to mobilize the
carbon that it contains.”
Walker is a contributing editor for New Scientist.
King was formerly the chief science advisor to the Tony Blair
government in the United Kingdom. In that capacity King in
October 2007 supported cattle farmers who then and now seek
to kill badgers to prevent outbreaks of bovine
tuberculosis––after the government-appointed Independent
Scientific Group concluded that although badgers can carry
bovine TB, massacring them tends to accelerate the spread of
the disease, as infected badgers wander farther to find mates
and healthy badgers spread into territory where some infected
survivors persist.
As Royal SPCA head of wildlife science Rob
Atkinson observed, “The government's study––which took
almost 10 years, cost the lives of more than 10,000 badgers and
cost taxpayers £34 million––showed killing badgers is actually
likely to make matters much worse.”
Despite King’s role then as in effect a spokesperson
for the cattle industry, neither King nor Walker seems aware
that finding ways to produce more crop yield relative to tillage
has been an obsession of agronomists since the Dust Bowl years
during the Great Depression of the 1930s, and that some of the
most rapid advances in that direction came about 35 years ago
with the introduction of no-till corn planting.
Instead of discharrowing
a field before planting, a no-till farmer need only
clear the field of vegetation that might compete with corn
seedlings by dowsing the soil with herbicides, wait a few days
for the herbicides to break down enough in sunlight that they
will not harm young corn, and then sow seed corn kernels with
a device called a seed drill, which essentially injects them into
the ground at an appropriate depth.
No-till cultivation minimizes topsoil loss due to erosion,
previously the bane of corn-growers, necessitating soil
rebuilding with manure after every harvest. A no-till farmer
can often just saturate the fields between crops with hog slurry,
which soaks in quickly without the need to plow it under.
No-till is so efficient compared to traditional corngrowing
that it made raising corn to feed cattle, pigs, and
chickens more economical than ever before, in turn enabling
the explosive growth of confinement husbandry that markedly
cut the price of meat relative to other commodities and sent
U.S. corn production and meat consumption soaring.
Other nations have followed the U.S. in turning
toward to no-till and raising huge fodder corn crops to feed
livestock. Just half a century ago most of the corn in the world
was produced for direct human consumption. Humans now eat
more corn than ever, yet 70% or more of the total global corn
crop is grown to feed livestock. Most of those animals represent
the net increase in per capita meat-eating over that time.
Plowing less is accordingly unlikely to do very much
to slow the pace of global warming. But raising fewer animals
for meat could have a marked and dramatic effect, while
increasing the volume of grain available for human consumption
several times over.
Though their topic is “What we can do about global
warming,” Walker and King obtusely ignore the most obvious
answer, but at least acknowledge the problem.
Mark Lynas in
Six Degrees never even gets warm.
Lynas discusses corn growing and cattle grazing in
Nebraska on pages 29-30, where “Beef and corn dominate the
economy.” Lynas describes the vulnerability of the Nebraska
topsoil and water supply to the potential effects of global warming.
Yet Lynas never looks at the contribution of raising beef
and corn for cattle fodder to the climatic problem that he foresees
as a looming threat to the beef and corn industries.
Lynas comes closest to making the connection on
page 195. “As the Chinese diet becomes increasingly rich in
meat and dairy products, ” Lynas writes, “more grain is needed.
By 2030, if Chinese consumers are to become as voracious
as Americans, they will use the equivalent of two-thirds of
today’s entire global harvest.”
But Lynas does not discuss Chinese potential demand
for meat and dairy products in terms of greenhouse gas yield.
The major conseqence Lynas sees is that, “One study conducted
by the United Kingdom and Chinese governments suggests
that by the latter third of the 21st century, if global temperatures
are more than three degrees highest than now, China’s
agricultural production will crash.
Yields of staple crops like
rice, wheat, and corn will decline by nearly 40%, perhaps
more if water supplies for irrigation run out.”
If rice, wheat, and corn were only raised for human
consumption, not to inefficiently feed to livestock for slaughter,
global output of these grains could decline by 40% next
year, while nearly doubling the presently tight supply of grain
available to feed people.
“Given that world foodstocks are already at historical
lows because of population growth and droughts,” Lynas
writes, criticizing the notion that biofuels are an effective
response to global warming, “devoting more of our best farmland
to growing fuel for cars seems close to insane. It may also
be immoral,” Lynas continues. “Because car-owning people
are by definition among the world’s rich elite, using food crops
to replace gas would create scarcity and drive up food prices on
the commodity markets, leaving the poorest to starve. The
reality is simple: you can use land to feed cars or to feed people,
but not both.”
Overlooked is that the same argument applies to
growing fodder crops for factory-farmed pigs and poultry.“A related question arises with the European Union’s
target of 5% biofuels in its vehicle fleet by 2010,” Lynas adds.“Much of this fuel will come from biodiesel, and a major feedstock
for this is palm oil grown on plantations in Indonesia and
Malaysia. These plantations have been responsible for disastrous
clear-cutting of the fast-declining natural tropical forests,
destroying the habitat of rare species like the orangutan and
causing major additional carbon releases through the burning of
wood and underlying peat.”
This is all correct––and this same argument applies to
clearing tropical forests in Central and South America and parts
of Africa to expand grazing lands used to produce beef.
A hint as to why Lynas is so determinedly oblivious
to the role of meat production in creating global warming
comes when he mentions that “Anti-wind farm campaigners
truly concerned about dangers to bird populations would probably
be served to grab a shotgun and conduct a cull of the local
neighborhood cats.”
Among other details, the birds most menaced by
wind power generation include hawks and owls, who are in no
way menaced by cats.
What Lynas advocates as the best solution to global
warming is for humanity to retreat to essentially the lifestyle of
a time when hotgun-owning people were the world’s rich
elite––an argument that King, for one, rejected in a recent
interview with Oliver Berkeman of The Guardian.
“There is a suspicion, and I have that suspicion
myself, that a large number of people who label themselves
'green' are actually keen to take us back to the 18th or even the
17th century,” King said. “I think that is utter hopelessness.
What I'm looking for is technological solutions to a technologically
driven problem, so the last thing we must do is eschew
technology."
Concludes Lynas, “Just as people were better off and
healthier in Britain under food rationing during the Second
World War, so most of us would see a dramatic improvement
in our quality of life if ‘carbon rationing’ were introduced by
the government.”
Presumably Lynas does not incorporate the terror of
the Blitz or the disease threats occasioned by bombed water and
sewer lines in his assessment of “better off and healthier.”
The major food commodities that were rationed in
Britain during World War II were meat, milk, and eggs, a
point Lynas fails to mention. Some people were “better off and
healthier” through avoiding the effects of consuming animal
products, and that could be repeated, but is more likely to
occur, along with slowing global warming, if what really
needs to be done is actually discussed.
The technological solutions that King seeks may or
may not be found. Yet finding a relatively quick, clean fix to
much of the global warming problem is as simple as abandoning
the meat habit. ––Merritt Clifton
Winged Wonders: A Celebration of Birds in Human History
by Peter Watkins & Jonathan Stockland
Bluebridge (240 West 35th St., Suite 500, New York,NY 10001), 2007. 207 pages, hardcover, $22.00.
Dogs Miscellany
by J.A. Wines
Bantam Dell (1745 Broadway, New York, NY 10019), 2007. 185 pages, paperback. $10.00.
Random compilations such as Winged Wonders and
Dogs Miscellany were fashionably called “non-books” several
decades ago, including by some of the most notorious compilers
of the era, in recognition that they have no plot, no theme,
and little structure beyond a cover and a price.
The term “non-book” came and went, however, and
miscellanies are still with us, as they have been for as long as
books have been published. Almanacs, magazines, and encyclopedias
evolved out of miscellanies, which delighted readers
for more than 500 years, offering much information about
favorite topics when information was hard to come by.
But the miscellany publishing business is now challenged.
These days anyone can run a web search and produce
an instant miscellany, with attractive color illustrations and
links to further particulars. Miscellany compilers are still in
business, as Winged Wonders and Dogs Miscellany d e m o nstrate,
yet may soon become as obscure in purpose to younger
generations as carbon paper and phonograph needles.
Actually, Winged Wonders and Dogs Miscellany are
obscure in purpose to me, too. The former offers some little known
vignettes about the occurrences of 16 bird species in
myth and literature, but the birds’ roles are often either
abstractly symbolic or seemingly incidental.
The latter is just a
mish-mash of usually unattributed and sometimes erroneous
material, the sources of which, when recognized, tend to be
far more deserving of a reader’s attention. ––Merritt Clifton
.